alamat palsu: trendwatching

the article below is reprinted from trendwatching and is part of a long series <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/h-whatisatrend.gif" style="width: 384px; height: 31px;" /> <img height="251" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/graph.gif" width="406" /> How about: “A statistically significant change in performance of measured data which is unlikely to be due to a random variation in the process.” That won't get the creative juices going. So consider the following definition, which we (trendwatching.com) came up with years ago and which still holds pretty well: A manifestation of something that has unlocked or newly serviced an existing (and hardly ever changing) consumer need,* desire, want, or value. At the core of this statement is the assumption that human beings, and thus consumers, don’t change that much. Their deep needs remain the same, yet can be unlocked or newly serviced. The ‘unlockers’ can be anything from changes in societal norms and values, to a breakthrough in technology, to a rise in prosperity. Example? One of the core human needs is to be in control, or at least to have the illusion of being in control. No wonder then, that the online world is so addictive. After all, it firmly puts the individual in the driver’s seat. Just give it a try: apply the above definition to your daily spottings and observations of how consumers behave, and how that behaviour is forever changing, and you will find that many seemingly unconnected business success stories will start to make sense. Successful innovations often satisfy existing, dormant needs in new and attractive ways. * P.S. Need to brush up on your knowledge of human needs? Re-reading <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs">Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs</a> never hurts. <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/h-commonmisperceptions.gif" style="width: 375px; height: 30px;" /> It’s hard to find two people who share the same language when it comes to trend watching. Here are a few common misperceptions. Not complete by far, so add your own: <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/karl.jpg" style="width: 401px; height: 284px;" /> <img align="bottom" height="12" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/bullet-red.gif" width="12" /> Predicting next year’s colours. Trend watching is about more than spotting the next colour, fabric or hot designer. Sure, black may be back, and miniskirts may re-conquer the catwalks in 2009, but the consumer arena is infinitely more complicated than that. In other words, fashion in all its variety, excitement, and pioneering business models is just another part of the world of consumer trends. In no way does it define consumer trends. <img height="210" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/ball.jpg" width="185" /> <img align="bottom" height="12" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/bullet-red.gif" width="12" /> Gazing into a crystal ball. Trend watching isn't about ‘hard-core’ futurism, either. Better leave gazing into a crystal ball, predicting what's going to happen 15 to 20 years from now, to futurists and scenario planning departments. Trend watching is about observing and understanding what’s already happening, the major and the minor, the mainstream and the fringe. In our case in the consumer and business arena. <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/pizzakono.jpg" style="width: 407px; height: 169px;" /> <img align="bottom" height="12" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/bullet-red.gif" width="12" /> Declaring the pizza cone an emerging consumer trend. We still get asked a million times about how to distinguish between trends and fads. A pizza cone is a fun product, but it won’t dramatically change the consumer arena. At most, it’s yet another manifestation that consumers want convenience no matter what. The latter is the trend. The product isn’t. <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/hsbc.jpg" style="width: 403px; height: 250px;" /> <img align="bottom" height="12" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/bullet-red.gif" width="12" /> Applying all trends to all people. Don’t fall for this one. One massive mistake both trend spotters and brands make all the time, is to assume or pretend that a certain consumer trend will affect or be embraced by ALL consumers. No. Remember, in life and in trends: beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The above HSBC ad illustrates it well. Whatever catches your fancy while spotting and tracking trends, please remember that not everything applies to everyone, and that virtually every trend has its anti-trend. Furthermore, the new doesn’t always kill the old. E-commerce may be booming, but real world retail is far from dead. Has the latter changed? Sure. But take one look at excited shoppers and <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/trysumers.htm" target="_blank">TRYSUMERS</a> spending hours in Apple’s flagship store in New York and it becomes clear that both online and offline retail have many years of innovation and opportunity ahead of them. In trends, always try to figure out what the ‘AND’ is, not just the ‘OR’, and your trend (and opportunity) spotting skills will improve immensely. <img src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/science.jpg" style="width: 405px; height: 204px;" /> <img align="bottom" height="12" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/img/briefing/2007-09/bullet-red.gif" width="12" /> Those who watch trends have to possess some rare kind of intuition. Not true. This isn't brain surgery, nor is it rocket science. Observing the world around you, with an open mind, is something many professionals have unlearned, but not something they aren’t born with. If you want to spot trends, you can.

Trendwatching tips & Insights

the article below is reprinted from trendwatching and is part of a long series How about: “A statistically significan...

<h2>"NOUVEAU NICHE"</h2> <img height="146" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/newsletters/mar05/nicheflix.jpg" width="429" /> BusinessWeek called it 'The Vanishing Mass Market', Wired Magazine spoke of the Lost Boys and the Long Tail. Others talk about Niche Mania, Stuck in the Middle, or Commoditization Chaos. Those at <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/">Trendwatching</a> dubbed it NOUVEAU NICHE: the new riches will come from servicing the new niches! And while all of this may smack of wordplay, the drivers behind this trend stretch widely and profusely, and have been building for years. So even though you may be more or less familiar with the below, it's definitely time to incorporate NOUVEAU NICHE into your corporate vocabulary AND your business strategy. The move towards everything niche should definitely rank right up there with other mega trends like <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/GENERATION_C.htm" target="_blank">GENERATION C</a>, <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/2002/11/MASSCLUSIVITY.html" target="_blank">MASSCLUSIVITY</a>, <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/MASTERoftheYOUNIVERSE.htm" target="_blank">MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE</a> and so on. What's fueling NOUVEAU NICHE? 1. Consumers are more individualized than ever, expecting every good, service and experience to be addressing their unique and oh so important selves. Gone are the traditional demographic segments, the distinct consumer classes: this is all about being <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/MASTERoftheYOUNIVERSE.htm" target="_blank">MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE</a>. <img align="right" height="240" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/newsletters/mar05/mini.jpg" width="143" />Gone too are the days when, as BusinessWeek so eloquently put it; "the ideal was not merely to keep up with the Joneses, but to be the Joneses." In a NOUVEAU NICHE world, where the demise of institutions and their stifling conventions has unlocked latent hyper individualization, where it is all about 'me' (for better or worse), where being special will lend consumers status, to be mass is now every consumer's nightmare. Witness <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/2002/11/GRAVANITY.html" target="_blank">GRAVANITY</a>, witness <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/2002/11/MASSCLUSIVITY.html" target="_blank">MASSCLUSIVITY</a>. Even the few mass objects of desire that still manage to unite large groups of consumers -- iPods, Nokia handsets, or the Mini Cooper -- are likely to be customized and personalized the moment they leave the warehouse, website or store. Consumers are also more experienced than ever. They expertly cut through the crap, ignore advertising, and know which quality and price levels are fair. They actively hunt for the best of the best, and the best of the best is often NOT mass. (The only mass they're willing to put up with is the stuff they don't really care about and can get on the cheap at Aldi or WalMart). As <a href="http://www.thelongtail.com/" target="_blank">Chris Anderson</a>, author of the excellent <a href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html" target="_blank">Long Tail article</a> points out, the only reason mass used to equal 'hit', had to do with the now outdated perception that if something sells well, it must certainly be good. Now, with consumers not only being comfortable wandering further from the beaten path, but the beaten path also being much easier to leave (thank you WWW), they discover their taste is not as mainstream as they thought. Mass popularity was based more on what was available (think mass marketing budgets, limited physical shelf space, limited broadcasting channels, and a nearly complete lack of transparency), than on absolute laws of nature that dictated 'good' or 'bad'. <img height="158" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/newsletters/mar05/whiteStore.jpg" width="429" /> No wonder that retail and hospitality players, which currently find themselves at the forefront of the NOUVEAU NICHE slash best of the best revolution, are opening up specialized stores and venues as fast as you can say 'NOUVEAU NICHE'. From British <a href="http://www.thewhitecompany.com/" target="_blank">The White Company</a> (above), which only sells white home accessories, to NY's <a href="http://www.ricetoriches.com/" target="_blank">Rice to Riches</a> (twenty flavors of rice pudding, including endangered maple with sun dried blueberries) to fast-expanding <a href="http://www.oilvinegar.com/" target="_blank">Oil and Vinegar</a> (twenty five kinds of olive oil) and so on. On the US West Coast, the next big NOUVEAU NICHE thing is regional Italian restaurants, from San Francisco based A16 serving food solely from the Campania region and its capital city Naples, to LA's Locanda Veneta in Los Angeles and Genoa restaurant in Portland, Oregon (source: Debra Mustain, <a href="http://www.springspotters.com/" target="_blank">Springspotters</a>). Hospitality? Lake Tahoe's THE BLOCK hotel welcomes snowboarders (see our <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/2003/01/BRANDEDBRANDS.html" target="_blank">BRANDED BRANDS</a> update below), while countless B&Bs (all with their own websites) around the world now cater to every alternative lifestyle, preference or inclination known to man. However, all of this pales compared to NOUVEAU NICHE in the virtual world: 2. The combination of online transparency of supply, prices, recommendations and opinions AND near one billion online users enables a match-making game connecting insanely segmented supply with equally fragmented NOUVEAU NICHE demand. Choose from eBay's millions of sellers offering everything from the expected to the unbelievable. Dive into iTunes' hundreds of thousands of songs, Amazon.com's hundreds of thousands of books, Netflix's tens of thousands of movies and documentaries. Or go to <a href="http://www.nicheflix.com/" target="_blank">Nicheflix</a> for even more off the beaten path choice. Or visit <a href="http://www.mandymay.com/" target="_blank">Mandy May</a>, the world's first DVD rental service to focus entirely on chick flicks (source: Aisha Jordan, <a href="http://www.springspotters.com/" target="_blank">Springspotters</a>). <img height="284" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/newsletters/mar05/nicheDating.jpg" width="429" /> Consumers looking for other people, not things, end up on niche dating sites like <a href="http://www.cyclingsingles.com/" target="_blank">cyclingsingles.com</a>, <a href="http://www.winesingles.com/" target="_blank">winesingles.com</a>, <a href="http://www.datemypet.com/" target="_blank">datemypet.com</a>, <a href="http://www.singlerepublican.com/" target="_blank">singlerepublican.com</a>, <a href="http://www.democraticsingles.com/" target="_blank">democraticsingles.com</a> (source: ABC News). Choice within these niche segments is growing, too: Jewish singles check out <a href="http://www.jdate.com/" target="_blank">jdate.com</a>, <a href="http://www.jewishcafe.com/" target="_blank">jewishcafe.com</a>, <a href="http://www.jewishmingle.com/" target="_blank">jewishmingle.com</a>, <a href="http://www.gefiltefishing.com/" target="_blank">gefiltefishing.com</a>, <a href="http://www.frumster.com/" target="_blank">frumster.com</a>. Add to that the revolution in location-based search (see our <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/READY-TO-KNOW.htm" target="_blank">READY-TO-KNOW</a> trend), making transparency truly personal and local, and the ongoing proliferation of collaborative filtering ("customers who bought this title also bought..." -- an essential ingredient for consumers to find their way deeper and deeper into unbridled catalogues and databases), and NOUVEAU NICHE no longer 'just' enables consumers to stray from what or who they know, but actively encourages them to do so. (P.S. More on this in next month's TWINSUMER trend description.) 3. New production processes, mass (!) distribution, technologies and communication channels, all enabling global economies of scale and scope, allow for virtually everything to be made and broadcast, at whatever specification, and whatever batch size. China. India. Eastern Europe. USD 29 DVD players. Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group's 8,530 TEU container ships. Airbus 380. New H&M and Zara collections every week. Podcasting. Virtual worlds. 254 TV channels. Google AdWords. Ironically, the only mass worth studying may be the mass/abundance of virtual shelf space (inventory no longer equals costs) and communication channels. One marketing message and one product for every individual: it will truly be upon us soon. <img height="152" src="http://www.trendwatching.com/newsletters/mar05/genC.jpg" width="429" /> But is it all about traditional producers becoming more nimble? Not at all: 4. New producers, including the millions of members of <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/GENERATION_C.htm" target="_blank">GENERATION C</a>, are adding niche content in text, audio, video by the tera bytes, to be purchased by micro audiences. For all the talk of new opportunities for established niche producers and marketers, the most interesting next development for NOUVEAU NICHE may be driven by ordinary consumers, doubling as producers. Equipped with professional hardware, software, skills and their own showrooms/shops at amateur prices, they're already producing an avalanche of new content: books, articles, songs, photographs, videos; thereby adding billions of new products and items to pickings that are already immense. Just consider how hundreds of thousands of bloggers have already exposed many mass media outlets for the boring, predictable and bland one-for-all content factories that they are. Next next? Crafts! Not only the world of technology is throwing professional goodies at amateurs, so are the more traditional DIY manufacturers: NOUVEAU NICHE will increasingly be a <a href="http://www.redpaper.com/" target="_blank">redpaper.com</a> meets <a href="http://www.cafepress.com/" target="_blank">cafepress.com</a> meets <a href="http://www.lulu.com/" target="_blank">lulu.com</a> meets <a href="http://www.boundlessgallery.com/" target="_blank">boundlessgallery.com</a> meets GENERATION C. We ain't seen nothing yet. OPPORTUNITIES The above is NOT spanking new, and neither is it complete (part 2 to follow soon). However, what IS new, is how rapid NOUVEAU NICHE is approaching its (dare we say it?) tipping point. Everything has been put into place to unlock consumers' need for NOUVEAU NICHE on a global and local scale. Yes, NOUVEAU NICHE is work in progress, for you and for us. But above all, it's a mindset. To continue thinking of niche as unprofitable or even worse, unpopular, may equal commercial suicide. Expect every significant field in business to succumb to the power of NOUVEAU NICHE. Advertising. Publishing. Television. Food and Beverage. Hospitality. Dating. Entertainment. Electronics. Search. Financial services. And so on. We'll still need mass, whether it's for low cost goods or to satisfy sudden cravings to belong to a larger group. And something that is really, really good or desirable will still be able to reach mass status. But it will be mass by choice, not mass by scarcity. Where to start? Study the <a href="http://www.thelongtail.com/" target="_blank">Long Tail</a> phenomenon, hang out in niche venues, experiment with Google AdWords, actively look for NOUVEAU NICHE manifestations while roaming the streets, waiting at airports, and surfing the web. Re-read our <a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/trends/MASTERoftheYOUNIVERSE.htm">MASTERS OF THE YOUNIVERSE</a> trend and keep an eye out for NOUVEAU NICHE, PART 2. Should be enough to get you going, and hopefully the above will help you to introduce relevant niche goods, services and experiences before your competition does! --<h3>source:<a href="http://www.trendwatching.com/">Trendwatching</a></h3>

Meet The Nouveau Niche: Your New Demographic

"NOUVEAU NICHE" BusinessWeek called it 'The Vanishing Mass Market', Wired Magazine spoke of the Lost Boys and the Long T...

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